Only 15% of U.S. Households Are Net Taxpayers: Is This Sustainable? Using Grok a

Only 15% of U.S. Households Are Net Taxpayers: Is This Sustainable?

Using Grok and a simple version of full accounting (@curtdoolittle @NatLawInstitute), I have calculated that approximately 15% of U.S. households are net taxpayers, meaning they pay more in taxes than they receive in benefits from the commons (e.g., welfare, police, defense, infrastructure). This leaves 85% as net consumers, relying on the contributions of a small minority. How did we arrive at this number?

We started with all taxes paid (income, payroll, sales, etc.) and benefits received (transfers like Social Security, public goods like national defense). Initially, ~50% of households were net taxpayers, but we refined this by:

• Accounting for non-working groups (retirees, unemployed, students, children), who receive high benefits (e.g., $71,092 for retirees vs. $7,500 taxes).
• Excluding state/state-funded workers (~20 million households), whose taxes are “recycled” tax revenue, not new contributions.
• Considering overlooked factors: undervalued public goods (e.g., property protection benefiting the wealthy), hidden subsidies (tax deductions), externalized costs (pollution), and future liabilities (national debt).

These adjustments reduced the net taxpayer share from 23% to 15% (~20 million of 130 million households). This reflects Doolittle’s rigorous approach, emphasizing reciprocity and costs to the commons (full accounting).

Critical Questions:

• Is it sustainable for 15% of households to subsidize 85% of society, covering welfare, defense, and more?
• The 15% (often high-earning, professional households) have the lowest reproductive rates in America. If this group shrinks to 10% (due to aging, low birth rates, or emigration), and tax revenue can’t sustain the 90% net consumers, what happens then? Will benefits collapse, taxes skyrocket, or society face deeper instability?

What do you think? Can a system where so few support so many endure, especially as the contributor base shrinks? Share your thoughts below.